Jadon Sancho: Is there another alternative to England’s Wonderkid ?
Jadon Sancho at the age of 20 has the World at his feet, the Englishman has emerged as one of the world’s most exciting young players since making the bold decision of swapping Manchester City for Borussia Dortmund in 2017. Labelled as a generational talent his price tag of £100m plus has a host of Europe’s biggest clubs interested in his signature from attracting interest from a long list of the biggest sides in Europe.
In this article I will be using statistical analysis to analyse players of 23 and under across Europe’s big five leagues to see if there are any alternatives to Sancho, who could potentially be signed for less than Sancho’s market value of £117 million and offer similar qualities.
Sancho at Borussia Dortmund
Sancho’s numbers for goals and assists (reflected in the above radar) show his extraordinary effectiveness in the final third but they do not tell the full story of his evolution as a player. The Englishman has been used in a variety of positions over his last 50 appearances for Die Schwarzgelben, playing centrally at times but most frequently on the right.
Sancho is also excelling in other areas of his game such as his ability to create dangerous situations with his technique, his speed and his dribbling. The winger is also completing a high number of his passes, meaning he is also adept at maintaining possession for his Dortmund side. These are all areas which will need to be considered and will be included in our analysis.
Attacking Contribution — xG/90 and xA/90
Jadon Sancho has accumulated 73 goal contributions (31 goals and 42 assists) from 90 appearances in all competitions during his time at Dortmund. This equates to a very impressive figure of a contribution every 88 minutes.
Therefore it is only natural to compare players expected goals (xG) per 90 and their expected assists (xA) per 90. This will give us an indicator as to which players shoot from good positions and also complete passes which are likely to become a goal assist.
This season Sancho has an xG figure of 0.36 and an xA figure of 0.35 per 90 minutes.
The first player which stands is Kylian Mbappé, the 21-year-old from Paris Saint-Germain is currently averaging 1.5 goal contributions per 90 minutes. The Frenchman, despite his exceptional outputs will not be taken into consideration as his market value is £180 million and the purpose of this activity is to identify a cheaper alternative.
This leads me onto Christopher Nkunku (22), a French attacking midfielder who is enjoying his first season in the Bundesliga for RB Leipzeg after moving to the German outfit from PSG. Nkunku has an xG figure of 0.31 and xA of 0.47 per ninety minutes.
Next up is Kelechi Iheanacho (23) of Leicester City who has an xG figure of 0.43 and xA of 0.33 per 90, operating as a centre forward.
The third player of interest is Marcus Thuram (22), the Frenchman is also another player enjoying their first season in the Bundesliga after moving to Borussia Mönchengladbach from EA Guingamp for £8.1 million. Marcus is boasting an xG figure of 0.36 and an xA of 0.32 per 90.
The final player that I have identified is Leon Bailey (22) of Bayer 04 Leverkusen who has an xG figure of 0.44 and xA of 0.22 per 90.
Attacking Contribution — Chance Creation
The next area of Sancho’s game which the Englishman excels at is his ability to play a high proportion of passes per 90 minutes into the penalty area. I have opted to compare this value to big chances created per 90. This will highlight the quality of passes as a big chance is defined as a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter.
As you can see from the below DataViz Jadon is averaging 0.7 big chances per 90 and 2.24 passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes.
The first player of interest is Martin Ødegaard (21) the attacking midfielder is currently playing at Real Sociedad on loan from Real Madrid. The Norwegian is leading the sample with his 2.9 passes into the penalty area per 90, however his low value of 0.4 big chances per 90 would lead me to believe he isn’t the best fit for a replacement.
Leading us onto Lorenzo Pellegrini (23) of Roma, who is averaging 2.57 passes into the penalty area and 0.66 big chances created per 90. The Italian operates predominantly as a central midfielder which again would rule him out of the process.
Our first real potential replacement would be Callum Hudson-Odoi (19) of Chelsea, the fellow Englishman has played 2.56 passes into the box this season and is averaging 0.58 big chances created per 90.
Next up Josip Brekalo (21) of VfL Wolfsburg with 1.79 passes into the box and 0.57 big chances created, the Croation has really been a stand out performer under Oliver Glasner this season.
Finally Kingsley Coman (23) who is playing 1.98 passes into the box for Bayern Munich this season and is averaging 0.54 big chances created per 90.
Attacking Contribution — Flair
The final look at the data in this manner is something which I like to use to identify flair or the ability to get the fans on the edge of their seats. I do this by comparing successful dribbles per 90 with key passes per 90.
Jadon Sancho has been averaging 2.94 successful dribbles and 2.69 key passes per 90 this season under Lucien Favre.
Emiliano Buendía (23) is the stand out performer across the big five leagues in relation to these two data sets, the Argentinian right winger has created 3.2 key passes and completed 4.08 successful dribbles in his first season in the Premier League for Norwich.
Ander Barrenetxea (18) has yet to complete a full 90 minutes of football for Real Sociedad, despite this manager Imanol Alguacil will have noted the youngsters potential. The Spaniard is averaging 3.6 successful dribbles and 2.8 key passes per 90 minutes.
Next up is Cengiz Ünder (22) of Roma, the Turkish right winger has averaged 3.3 successful dribbles and completed 2.73 key passes per 90 minutes in Serie A.
Last but not least Christopher Nkunku makes the cut as the Frenchman has the highest amount of key passes per 90 minutes at 4.16, whilst completing 2.61 dribbles per 90.
The Shortlist
Josip Brekalo
Josip Brekalo has impressed this season for VfL Wolfsburg who are sitting in seventh place in the Bundesliga. The Croatian is creating 0.57 big chances per 90 minutes and is playing 1.79 passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes. He has contributed with 3 goals and 4 assists in 2019/20 and is outperforming his expected goals (2.14) and expected assists (3.99). The Croatian prefers to operate down the left flank which is highlighted in the below heat map. Brekalo has a market value of £13.5 million and is under contract with The Wolves until 2023.
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía has been one of the surprises of the season for Norwich in the Premier League, contributing with 7 assists for Daniel Farke’s side who find themselves bottom of the league. The Argentinian was signed to replace James Maddison and kudos must be given to the scouting department at Carrow Road.
Unlike other playmakers, Buendía is much more than just a ball-player. The Norwich maestro looks to take responsibility. He’s completing on average, 4.08 dribbles per 90 minutes. Whilst wingers are often one-on-one players Buendía isn’t he drifts centrally, as shown in his heat map below. He’s moving into crowded areas, often the opposite of what players are instructed to do but due to his ability in tight spaces he’s able to bypass the opposition and this creates space, and opportunities, for others. This is reflected in his 3.24 key passes per 90. Buendía is under contract with Norwich until 2024 and has a market value of £16.2 million, he is certainly ready to be tested at a higher level already at this early stage in his career.
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku is thriving at Leipzig under the guidance of Julian Nagelsmann, the attacking midfielder has secured 1,450 minutes of football for his side who sit in third place in the Bundesliga. The Frenchman has shown himself to be an incredible mover off the ball and have the ability to pick out a pass often at pace during the transitional phase, this is highlighted with Nkunku’s leading stat being his 4.2 key passes per 90 minutes. He has also scored 4 goals this season, 1.8 under his xG figure of 5.8, whilst providing more assists than expected with 12 from an xA figure of 8.6. Nkundu holds a market value of £31.5 million, however is under contract with the Bundesliga side until 2024.
Callum Hudson-Odoi
Callum Hudson-Odoi has played 770 minutes of Premiership Football for Chelsea this season under Frank Lampard, after retuning from a serious achilles injury last season. CHO stands out for his ability on the ball his leading stat being 2.8 successful dribbles per game. The youngster possesses explosive pace and often demands the ball to feet so he can attack the opposition with his speed and trickery, he is also capable of operating from both flanks. Callum has a market value of £31.5 million and is under contract until 2024.
Conclusion
So, there we have it. I have identified a shortlist of four potential players that have interesting data so far this season and could be an alternative to Jadon Sancho. Each player provides a slightly different skill set but certainly have similarities with the Englishman and could be deemed as a viable alternative for clubs not willing to spend all of their transfer budget on a marque signing. The next step would be to carry out an eye test on the above players by conducting a video analysis on the players to see how the perform in a range of situations.
